Impact of strong climate change on the statistics of wind power generation in Europe

Abstract

Variable renewable energy sources highly rely on weather and climate variability. Therefore, their power output may become subject to climate change. We analyze how strong climate change may affect wind power resources in Europe, based on the outcome of high-resolution climate simulations. In particular, we evaluate the probability and persistence of low, medium and high wind regimes and the seasonal variability of wind speeds. For many parts in Europe we find a shift in the wind speed distribution: from higher to smaller wind velocities. Thus, the occurrence of wind velocities smaller than the cut-in velocity becomes more likely, which may result in lower wind power output. We further observe an increasing seasonal wind variability over most of Central and North-Western Europe. This may enhance curtailment in the winter months and backup energy needs in summer.