Impact of stratospheric ozone on the subseasonal prediction in the southern hemisphere spring

Abstract

Antarctic ozone has been regarded as a major driver of the Southern Hemisphere (SH) circulation change in the recent past. Here, we show that Antarctic ozone can also affect the subseasonal-to-seasonal (S2S) prediction during the SH spring. Its impact is quantified by conducting two reforecast experiments with the Global Seasonal Forecasting System 5 (GloSea5). Both reforecasts are initialized on September 1st of each year from 2004 to 2020 but with different stratospheric ozone: one with climatological ozone and the other with year-to-year varying ozone. The reforecast with climatological ozone, which is common in the operational S2S prediction, shows the skill re-emergence in October after a couple of weeks of no prediction skill in the troposphere. This skill re-emergence, mostly due to the stratosphere–troposphere dynamical coupling, becomes stronger in the reforecast with year-to-year varying ozone. The surface prediction skill also increases over Australia. This result suggests that a more realistic stratospheric ozone could lead to improved S2S prediction in the SH spring.