Abstract
Global climate changes caused by increased atmospheric concentrations of carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) and other greenhouse gases will change patterns of water yield. Increases in CO 2 affect water yield through changes in temperature, precipitation, runoff, and evapotranspiration (ET). The Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) was applied to five watersheds in the Missouri River basin with different types of land cover to study the hydrologic responses under doubled CO 2 and climate change. The high-resolution climate change scenario developed from the National Center for Atmosphere Research (NCAR) Regional Climate Model (RegCM) was used to provide the climate change scenario. Sensitivity analysis was performed to study the effect of increased leaf area index on ET. Results showed that ET decreased 2–11% and water yield increased 9–34% under a simple doubled CO 2 scenario for the different land cover watersheds. When climate change were added, ET increased significantly compared to the doubled CO 2 simulation due the effects of increased temperature, solar radiation, and other climatic variables. Some sub-basins even show larger ET than that of baseline simulation. Water yield increased dramatically under climate change due to significant increases in precipitation. The sensitivity analysis on leaf area index showed no significant change to ET and water yield.
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