Impact of Stochastic Convection on Ensemble Forecasts of Tropical Cyclone Development

Abstract

Abstract Two versions of the Navy Operational Global Atmospheric Prediction System (NOGAPS) global ensemble, with and without a stochastic convection scheme, are compared regarding their performance in predicting the development and evolution of tropical cyclones. Forecasts of four typhoons, one tropical storm, and two selected nondeveloping tropical systems from The Observing System Research and Predictability Experiment (THORPEX) Pacific Asian Regional Campaign and Tropical Cyclone Structure 2008 (T-PARC/TCS-08) field program during August and September 2008 are evaluated. It is found that stochastic convection substantially increases the spread in ensemble storm tracks and in the vorticity and height fields in the vicinity of the storm. Stochastic convection also has an impact on the number of ensemble members predicting genesis. One day prior to the system being declared a tropical depression, on average, 31% of the ensemble members predict storm development when the ensemble includes initial perturbations only. When stochastic convection is included, this percentage increases to 50%, but the number of “false alarms” for two nondeveloping systems also increases. However, the increase in false alarms is smaller than the increase in correct development predictions, indicating that stochastic convection may have the potential for improving tropical cyclone forecasting.