Impact of Solvent Emissions on Reactive Aromatics and Ozone in the Great Lakes Region

Abstract

While transportation emissions have declined over the past several decades, volatile organic compound (VOC) emissions from solvent use applications have increased as urban areas expand. In this work, the Canadian air quality model (GEM-MACH-TEB) is used to assess the importance of solvent emissions during the Michigan Ontario Ozone Source Experiment (MOOSE). Model predictions are compared to ozone and total mono-substituted aromatics (TOLU) observations collected in Windsor, Ontario. For summer 2018, model estimates of TOLU from solvent emissions are smaller (30% for an 8 h daytime average) in Windsor than estimates from positive matrix factorization (44% for a 24 h average). The use of updated U.S. solvent emissions from the EPA’s VCPy (Volatile Chemical Product framework) for summer 2021 simulations increases the solvent use source contribution over Detroit/Windsor (30–50% for an 8 h daytime average). This also provides a more uniform spatial distribution across the U.S./Canada border (30–50% for an 8 h daytime average). Long-chain alkanes are the dominant speciation in the model’s air pollutant emission inventory and in the observation-derived solvent use factor. Summertime 8 h daytime ozone decreased by 0.4% over Windsor for a 10% solvent use VOC emission reduction scenario. A 10% mobile NOx emission reduction scenario resulted in a 0.6% O3 decrease over Windsor and more widespread changes over the study region.