Abstract
Social distancing orders have been enacted worldwide to slow the coronavirus disease (COVID-19) pandemic, reduce strain on healthcare systems, and prevent deaths. To estimate the impact of the timing and intensity of such measures, we built a mathematical model of COVID-19 transmission that incorporates age-stratified risks and contact patterns and projects numbers of hospitalizations, patients in intensive care units, ventilator needs, and deaths within US cities. Focusing on the Austin metropolitan area of Texas, we found that immediate and extensive social distancing measures were required to ensure that COVID-19 cases did not exceed local hospital capacity by early May 2020. School closures alone hardly changed the epidemic curve. A 2-week delay in implementation was projected to accelerate the timing of peak healthcare needs by 4 weeks and cause a bed shortage in intensive care units. This analysis informed the Stay Home-Work Safe order enacted by Austin on March 24, 2020.
Highlights
Social distancing orders have been enacted worldwide to slow the coronavirus disease (COVID-19) pandemic, reduce strain on healthcare systems, and prevent deaths
We have focused our analysis on Austin, which is the capital of Texas and the fastest growing city in the United States, as a representation of major US metropolitan areas
We focused on the Austin–Round Rock Statistical Metropolitan Area, which had a population of 2.17 million persons in 2018, but the qualitative findings and impact of social distancing will apply to cities throughout the United States
Summary
Social distancing orders have been enacted worldwide to slow the coronavirus disease (COVID-19) pandemic, reduce strain on healthcare systems, and prevent deaths. A 2-week delay in implementation was projected to accelerate the timing of peak healthcare needs by 4 weeks and cause a bed shortage in intensive care units This analysis informed the Stay Home-Work Safe order enacted by Austin on March 24, 2020. Beginning in March 2020, states and cities implemented extensive social distancing measures to contain the spread of SARS-CoV-2, including school closures, limits on mass gatherings, shelter-in-place orders, travel restrictions, and bans on nonessential commercial activities. The timing of the orders varied; California was the first state to enact strict orders on March 19 and South Carolina the last on April 7 [10] These measures dramatically slowed the pace of the pandemic during April and May, but confirmed COVID-19 cases and hospitalizations have been increasing since early June, in Arizona, Florida, Texas, and California [11]
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