Abstract
A seasonally perturbed variant of the basic Susceptible-Infected-Recovered (SIR) model in epidemiology is considered in this paper. The effect of seasonality on an IR system of ordinary differential equations describing the dynamics of a novel pathogen, e.g., highly pathogenic avian influenza, in a seabird colony is investigated. The method of Lyapunov functions is used to determine the long-term behaviour of this system. Numerical simulations of the seasonally perturbed IR system indicate that the system exhibits complex dynamics as the amplitude of the seasonal perturbation term is increased. These findings suggest that seasonality may exert a considerable effect on the dynamics of epidemics in a seabird colony.
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