Impact of sea level rise on the land cover structure in Southeast Asia

Piotr Michalak,Carsten Keßler,Angelina Patsili,Olga Carmen

doi:10.5194/agile-giss-2-36-2021

Abstract

Abstract. Sea-level rise in Southeast Asia is a consequence of climate change that will affect almost all coastal countries in the region. The results of this phenomenon may have severe consequences, from problems with food production, through mass migration of people, to the threat to unique ecological areas. Hence, the main aim of this research was to investigate the impact of sea level rise on the land cover structure in the region and how it may affect the situation of the countries in the region. For this purpose, GlobCover 2009 data and projections of sea level rise by one meter were used and a multiband raster image was created containing information about the land cover class, country and whether the area is threatened by sea level rise. All calculations have been made on the raster prepared in this way, which shows that 4.4% of South East Asia's areas are at risk of rising sea levels. Finally, the ratio was calculated for each land cover class. This showed the unusual vulnerability of some of the classes to rising sea levels like irrigated croplands and urban areas.

Highlights

Sea level rise is one of the biggest challenges facing modern civilization
Southeast Asia is a region vulnerable to rising sea levels because lowland and delta areas constitute a significant part of the region, which consists of eleven countries: Brunei, Cambodia, Indonesia, Laos, Malaysia, Myanmar, Philippines, Singapore, Thailand, East Timor and Vietnam
The last set of data used in the study were the borders of the countries and their exclusive economic zones (EEZ) of the countries of the region obtained from the Marine Regions database, created by the Vlaams Instituut voor de Zee (VLIZ, 2020)

Summary

Introduction

Sea level rise is one of the biggest challenges facing modern civilization. It is estimated that by 2100 sea level may rise up to 1 meter (See Fig. 1), which will result in an unprecedented scale of climate migration (Rahmstorf et al, 2012). Southeast Asia is a region vulnerable to rising sea levels because lowland and delta areas constitute a significant part of the region, which consists of eleven countries: Brunei, Cambodia, Indonesia, Laos, Malaysia, Myanmar, Philippines, Singapore, Thailand, East Timor and Vietnam. They are mostly developing countries with a large population and a long coastline. As of 2021, 673 million inhabitants – 8.58% of the total world population – live in Southeast Asia. In terms of population is East Timor, and Brunei with 1.2 and 0.4 million inhabitants, respectively. The problem in the region is illustrated by the example of Jakarta, which is the first mega city threatened by flooding (Abidin et al, 2010)

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