Impact of school operating scenarios on COVID-19 transmission under vaccination in the U.S.: an agent-based simulation model

Abstract

At the height of the COVID-19 pandemic, K-12 schools struggled to safely operate under the fast-changing pandemic situation. However, little is known about the impact of different school operating scenarios considering the ongoing efforts of vaccination. In this study, we deployed an agent-based simulation model to mimic disease transmission in a mid-sized community consisting of 10,000 households. A total of eight school operating scenarios were simulated, in decreasing order of restrictiveness regarding COVID-19 mitigation measures. When masks were worn at school, work, and community environments, increasing in-person education from 50% to 100% would result in only 1% increase in cumulative infections. When there were no masks nor contact tracing while schools were 100% in person, the cumulative infection increased by 86% compared to the scenario when both masking and contact tracing were in place. In the sensitivity analysis for vaccination efficacy, we found that higher vaccination efficacy was essential in reducing overall infections. Our findings showed that full in-person education was safe, especially when contact tracing, masking, and widespread vaccination were in place. If no masking nor contact tracing was practiced, the transmission would rose dramatically but eventually slow down due to herd immunity.