Abstract
Reduction of child mortality while coverage of family planning services remains low may render Afghanistan a testing ground for the theory of demographic transition. Meanwhile there is a vicious circle: young men lacking employment join the Taliban and so increase national insecurity, discouraging industry and reducing employment opportunities. For progress towards peace to be made and sustained, family planning, education and employment need to be major parts of the peace effort, and UN reports need to emphasise more which way the scales tip.
Highlights
The observation that after reduction in mortality rates societies experience reduction in birth rates is well established
In particular the presence of a “youth bulge” in Afghanistan’s demographic structure, itself a result of the success of interventions to reduce child mortality rates, poses particular challenges to the ability of the country to move through its present stage of demographic transition towards stabilisation of population
We argue that Afghanistan’s youth bulge leads to a vicious circle where young men lacking employment opportunities join the Taliban, thereby increasing national insecurity and discouraging economic development which in turn further reduces employment opportunities
Summary
The observation that after reduction in mortality rates societies experience reduction in birth rates is well established. How a youth bulge may increase armed conflict Improvement of mother and child health has led to significant reductions in under-5 mortality Those reductions, with Afghanistan’s total fertility rate of approximately 5.3 live births per woman in 2015 (Central Statistics Organization (CSO), et al, 2017), the highest in South Asia (though earlier surveys have been inconclusive about the exact level of fertility), are leading to increasing numbers of young people. Lack of availability of public health education on family planning and of provision of contraception for much of the population of Afghanistan is, in our view, an important limiting factor in reducing fertility. If the sons of women who have lacked education receive less than average education, they may be expected to have less success in finding employment and to be more likely to join the Taliban
Sign-in/Register to view highlights & summary Sign-in/Register to access full text options 
Talk to us
Join us for a 30 min session where you can share your feedback and ask us any queries you have
Schedule a call
