Impact of reduction of CO2 emissions in the households and tertiary sector on PM2.5 concentration and human health

Abstract

Significant efforts are being made in the world to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. In the households and tertiary sectors, where energy is mainly used for heating, one should also expect a shift away from fossil fuels (including natural gas) to renewables. In the REFLEX project the energy and emission scenarios were developed for various sectors with the use of ASTRA, ELTRAMOD, TIMES-HEAT-EU and FORECAST models for analysing the longterm situation up to 2050. The paper presents the results of the evaluation of air quality and health impacts associated with direct emissions of air pollutants from households and tertiary sector based on the Driver-Pressure-State-Impact-Response framework. Ambient concentration of air pollutants in Europe was calculated with the use of Polyphemus Air Quality System. Health impacts were estimated based on the concentration-response functions for PM2.5, which is responsible for the most significant impacts to human health. The study shows that according to analysed scenarios, particulate matter (PM2.5 and PM10) emissions from residential and tertiary sectors in Europe will decrease by 30 times untill 2050 compared to 2015. These emission reductions lead to improvement of the air quality. The largest reduction in PM2.5 ambient concentrations is observed over Poland. Consequently, it is expected that in 2050 the negative impact of air pollution on human health as well the associated external costs will be reduced in EU-28.