Abstract
In places with high spatiotemporal rainfall variability, such as mountain regions, input data could be a large source of uncertainty in hydrological modeling. Here we evaluate the impact of rainfall estimation on runoff modeling in a small páramo catchment located in the Zhurucay Ecohydrological Observatory (7.53 km2) in the Ecuadorian Andes, using a network of 12 rain gauges. First, the HBV-light semidistributed model was analyzed in order to select the best model structure to represent the observed runoff and its subflow components. Then, we developed six rainfall monitoring scenarios to evaluate the impact of spatial rainfall estimation in model performance and parameters. Finally, we explored how a model calibrated with far-from-perfect rainfall estimation would perform using new improved rainfall data. Results show that while all model structures were able to represent the overall runoff, the standard model structure outperformed the others for simulating subflow components. Model performance (NSeff) was improved by increasing the quality of spatial rainfall estimation from 0.31 to 0.80 and from 0.14 to 0.73 for calibration and validation period, respectively. Finally, improved rainfall data enhanced the runoff simulation from a model calibrated with scarce rainfall data (NSeff 0.14) from 0.49 to 0.60. These results confirm that in mountain regions model uncertainty is highly related to spatial rainfall and, therefore, to the number and location of rain gauges.
Highlights
Páramo is a high-elevation tropical Andean ecosystem located in the upper belt of the northernAndes approximately from 3500 to 5000 m a.s.l. [1,2]
The objective of this study is to evaluate the impact of precipitation estimation in the hydrological simulation of a mountain catchment
Each line represents a model structure and the overlapping of these lines indicates that all model structures have very similar performances
Summary
Páramo is a high-elevation tropical Andean ecosystem located in the upper belt of the northernAndes approximately from 3500 to 5000 m a.s.l. [1,2]. Páramo is a high-elevation tropical Andean ecosystem located in the upper belt of the northern. In Ecuador, it provides water for some of the most important hydropower projects such as Paute Integral (2353 MW) and Coca-Codo Sinclair (1500 MW) and irrigation projects in the inter-Andean valley [9]. Human activities such as grazing, cultivation, and pine plantations can alter their normal hydrological regulation [10,11].
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