Abstract
This study is dedicated to improving the daily release of ragweed pollen emission in the context of deterministic regional modelling for analysis and forecast. First, correlations are calculated between daily modelled meteorological variables (wind speed, temperature, humidity, precipitation, surface fluxes) and daily pollen counts at nine stations in Hungary, Croatia and France between 2005 and 2011. The 2 m temperature is the most correlated parameter, followed by convective velocity and incoming shortwave radiation, while precipitation rate and 2 m specific humidity act as limiting factors. Using these results, a ragweed pollen daily release formulation is proposed. This formulation is implemented in the CHIMERE chemistry-transport model and tested during the whole year of 2010. Results are compared to observations, and it is shown that the new formulation provides a more realistic day-to-day variability: the spatio-temporal correlation between surface measurements and modelled concentrations is 0.77, greater than two other known emission schemes.
Highlights
The Ambrosia artemisiifolia L. or common ragweed is an invasive weed, recognised for its atopic properties
To compare several parameterizations of pollen emissions, a simulation is performed over the whole of Western Europe for the year 2010
The modelling of ragweed pollen emissions is sensitive to the daily release term
Summary
The Ambrosia artemisiifolia L. or common ragweed is an invasive weed, recognised for its atopic properties. For both event analysis and operational forecast, numerous efforts have been devoted to model its emission and transport. [3,4]), the location of ragweed plants is difficult to establish, as presented in ref. For an area with clearly identified ragweed, seasonal weather conditions determine the phenology of the plant and its pollen production. Depending on these seasonal conditions, the yearly amount of pollen may be very different from one year to another [9]. One of the first foundational works is [10]
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