Abstract
Based on the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) satellite observation and ERA5 re-analysis dataset, this paper studies the influence of the northwestward-propagating quasi-biweekly oscillation (QBWO) over the western North Pacific on cold surge rainfall (CSR) over Southeast Asia. Cold surges are the most important driver affecting Southeast Asian rainfall on a synoptic scale. The presence of the QBWO during phases 6–8, in which the associated active convection coupling with a cyclonic circulation reaches Southeast Asia, provides a favorable environment for the increase of CSR. The increase in CSR primarily occurs east of the Philippines, leading to a high likelihood of triggering extreme rainfall. The effects from the QBWO are independent of those from the active MJO phases over Southeast Asia. Additionally, cold surge activity could also be influenced by the QBWO. An examination of the QBWO and MJO indicates that the most preferred phases for the occurrence of cold surges are the time when phase 1 of the QBWO co-exists with phase 7 of the MJO or the time when phase 7 of the QBWO couples with phase 5 of the MJO. Accordingly, about 40% of the total cold surge days would fall in either combination.
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