Abstract

The coronavirus outbreak in the United States continues to pose a serious threat to human lives. Public health measures to slow down the spread of the virus involve using a face mask, social-distancing, and frequent hand washing. Since the beginning of the pandemic, there has been a global campaign on the use of non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) to curtail the spread of the virus. However, the number of cases, mortality, and hospitalization continue to rise globally, including in the United States. We developed a mathematical model to assess the impact of a public health education program on the coronavirus outbreak in the United States. Our simulation showed the prospect of an effective public health education program in reducing both the cumulative and daily mortality of the novel coronavirus. Finally, our result suggests the need to obey public health measures as loss of willingness would increase the cumulative and daily mortality in the United States.

Highlights

  • The novel coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic caused by SARS-CoV-2 was first reported in Wuhan, China in December 2019 and later declared a pandemic by the World Health Organization (WHO) on March 11, 2020 [1,2,3]

  • We developed a mathematical model for the transmission dynamics and control of COVID-19 in the United States by stratifying the total population into two subgroups of willing and unwilling individuals to the use of face masks, social-distancing in public, and proper/frequent hand washing

  • The model allows for the assessment of the impact of public health education programs on the coronavirus outbreak in the United States

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Summary

Introduction

The novel coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic caused by SARS-CoV-2 was first reported in Wuhan, China in December 2019 and later declared a pandemic by the World Health Organization (WHO) on March 11, 2020 [1,2,3]. The emergence of the virus continues to cause devastating public health, and social-economic impact around the globe, including the United States [4, 5]. The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) on April 2, 2020, recommended the use of non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) such as face masks in public (see Figure 1) and to practice social-distancing to curtail the spread of the virus [3, 5, 8,9,10,11]. Actions taken in the early stage of the coronavirus outbreak by the various state governments in the United States include declaring a Public Health state of emergency and issuing a state-wide shelter in place. The use of a face mask by the general public in the United States has been controversial as some state governors issued executive orders that voided face mask mandates within their jurisdiction [17]

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