Impact of provincial infrastructure investment on the vulnerability of social-ecological system in China

Abstract

The impact of infrastructure investment on social-economic system or ecological system has been widely discussed, yet, the overall impact of infrastructure investment on social-ecological system (SES) is still unknown. This study summarized the impact mechanism of infrastructure investment on social ecosystem vulnerability. We first sorted out the impact mechanism of infrastructure investment on SES vulnerability, and then empirically analyzed the effect of provincial infrastructure investment on SES vulnerability by using spatial autocorrelation and spatial econometric models on the basis of accounting provincial per capita infrastructure capital stock and comprehensive evaluation of SES vulnerability. The results showed that the infrastructure capital stock per capita at provincial level increased significantly during 2004-2017, with a spatial pattern that the north was higher than the south and the east/west was higher than the middle in China. The provincial SES vulnerability was improved, with spatial distribution characteristics of gradually getting worse from east to west in China. There was positive spatial correlation between provincial infrastructure investment and SES vulnerability, with aggregation distribution characteristics. There was inverted U-shaped relationship between infrastructure investment and SES vulnerability in China, that was, the appropriate investment of infrastructure at early could decrease SES vulnerability, while over-investment would increase it. Our results revealed the overall impact mechanism and dynamic characteristics of infrastructure investment on SES vulnerability, and could provide theoretical and policy-making support for the coordination of infrastructure construction and SES vulnerability governance at the macro level for China.