Abstract
211 Background: Prostate-Specific Antigen Doubling Time (PSADT) can help predict prostate cancer (PC) patient outcomes, particularly in hormone sensitive disease. However, PSADT has not been well validated in non-metastatic castration-resistant (nmCR) PC patients. This study examined the prognostic impact of PSADT on time to metastasis (TTM) and overall survival (OS) among nmCRPC patients in the Veterans Health Administration (VHA) database. Methods: VHA patients in this retrospective study were males with PC who had medical or surgical castration between Jan 1, 2012 and Dec 31, 2016. Patients actively receiving luteinizing hormone-releasing hormone treatment with ≥2 PSA post-castration increases were identified. The 3rd PSA value ≥25% and 2 ng/ml > the 1st PSA value was the CRPC (index) date; patients had continuous VHA enrollment for ≥12-months pre- to post-index date. Patients were followed until the earliest of death or disenrollment. PSADT was calculated as the natural log of 2 divided (Ln2) by the log slope of PSA using all PSA values after CRPC until metastases, and patients were categorized into 2-month cohorts. A demographically and clinically adjusted Cox regression model explored associations between PSADT cohorts and TTM and OS. Results: We identified 3,579 patients from which 1,389 (38.8%) progressed to mCRPC while 2,190 (61.2%) remained nmCRPC. Overall, patients averaged 73 years of age. PSADT was calculable in 2,800 patients with an average PSA value of 25.49 ng/mL. After a median follow-up of 820 days, the median PSADT was 17 months. Compared with the PSADT > 12 months cohort, PSADT ≤2, > 2 to ≤4, > 4 to ≤6, > 6 to ≤8, and > 8 to ≤10 month cohorts were associated with higher risk of metastasis (hazard ratio [HR]: 33.77, CI: 25.93-43.96; HR: 14.32, CI: 11.83-17.32; HR: 6.58, CI: 5.42-7.98, HR: 4.14, CI: 3.27-5.25; HR: 3.14, CI: 2.45-4.03, respectively) and death (HR: 12.27, CI: 9.20-16.35; HR: 5.32, CI: 4.26-6.64; HR: 3.50, CI: 2.74-4.47, HR: 2.29, CI: 1.68-3.14; HR: 1.64, CI: 1.14-2.37, respectively). Conclusions: Short PSADT strongly associated with TTM and poor OS in nmCRPC patients. Newer nmCRPC treatments are advisable for high-risk patients.
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