Abstract
Across many industries, systems are exceeding their intended design lives, whether they are ships, bridges or military aircraft. As a result failure rates can increase and unanticipated wear or failure conditions can arise. Health monitoring research and application has the potential to more safely lengthen the service life of a range of systems through utilization of sensor data and knowledge of failure mechanisms to predict component life remaining. A further benefit of health monitoring when combined across an entire platform is system health management. System health management is an enabler of condition based maintenance, which allows repair or replacement based on material condition, not a set time. Replacement of components based on condition can enable cost savings through fewer parts being used and the associated maintenance costs. The goal of this research is to show the management of system health can provide savings in maintenance and logistics cost while increasing vehicle availability through the approach of condition based maintenance.This work examines the impact of prediction accuracy uncertainty in remaining useful life prognostics for a squadron of 12 aircraft. The uncertainty in this research is introduced in the system through an uncertainty factor applied to the useful life prediction. An ARENA discrete event simulation is utilized to explore the effect of prediction error on availability, reliability, and maintenance and logistics processes. Aircraft are processed through preflight, flight, and post-flight operations, as well as maintenance and logistics activities. A baseline case with traditional time driven maintenance is performed for comparison to the condition based maintenance approach of this research.This research does not consider cost or decision making processes, instead focusing on utilization parameters of both aircraft and manpower. The occurrence and impact of false alarms on system performance is examined. The results show the potential availability, reliability, and maintenance benefits of a health monitoring system and explore the diagnostic uncertainty.
Highlights
Across military and commercial fleets, aircraft are an example where lengthening service lives and budget constraints can adversely affect safety
The results show the potential availability, reliability, and maintenance benefits of a health monitoring system and explore the diagnostic uncertainty
The integrated systems health management (ISHM) cases all benefit from the prognostic capability of the ISHM system in ordering supplies to meet requirements
Summary
Across military and commercial fleets, aircraft are an example where lengthening service lives and budget constraints can adversely affect safety. More frequent inspections are required as service life increases to ensure safety of the users and the environment. The impact of shrinking budgets can reduce inspection frequency or delay needed repairs in favor of only performing mission critical tasks (Roach, 2009). Condition based maintenance (CBM) is an evolving maintenance concept with a goal of reducing maintenance and life cycle costs while increasing operational availability made possible, in part, by leveraging health monitoring techniques. With the F-35 maintenance and logistics alone projected to cost $1.1 trillion over the 55 year life span amid shrinking defense budgets, the need to reduce the life cycle cost (LCC) of military aircraft is paramount (Shalal-Esa, 2013).
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