Impact of Preventive Behavioral Responses to Epidemics in Rural Regions

Abstract

Various epidemics have arisen in rural locations through human-animal interaction, such as the H1N1 outbreak of 2009. To study the spreading of infectious diseases in rural regions, we have surveyed a rural county and its communities, and collected a dataset characterizing the rural population. From the respondents’ answers, we build a social (face-to-face) contact network. With this network, we explore the potential spread of epidemics through a Susceptible-Latent-Infected- Recovered (SLIR) disease model. We simulate an exact model of a stochastic SLIR Poisson process with disease parameters representing several infectious illnesses. To explore an array of potential diseases, we vary the infection rate across the spectrum of outbreaks and quantify the social network susceptibility through the whole spectrum. The extent to which social dynamics can control the spreading process is studied across this disease strength spectrum. We explore two models of a susceptible individual's dynamics in response to infections observed among the individuals in his neighborhood, namely preventive behavior adoption and social distancing. Through extensive simulations, our investigation reveals the potentially powerful impacts of social spontaneous responses in rural settings. We compare the strategies over the spectrum, and demonstrate that behavioral responses are most effective in the intermediate range of infection strengths.