Impact of Population Aging on Utilization of Medical Rehabilitation in Germany Till 2040

Abstract

The paper analyzes the influence of population aging on the future number of medical rehabilitation cases. Implications for the most important providers of rehabilitation services (Deutsche Rentenversicherung (DRV) (German Pension Insurance) and Gesetzliche Krankenversicherung (GKV) (Statutory Health Insurance)) are discussed. Data provided by the DRV and the GKV were used. A third database is the Hospital Statistics of the Federal Statistical Office. Each database contains data of rehabilitation cases of certain subpopulations. Based on the 13th coordinated population projection a forecast up to 2040 with each of these databases was undertaken. Population aging will decrease case numbers for the DRV from 961 thousand (2015) to 911 thousand in 2040 (- 5.2%). Cases of GKV will rise from 742 thousand (2015) to 934 thousand in 2040 (+25.9%). Because of population aging, the case numbers of older people (65 years or older) in rehabilitation will increase by about a third until 2040. The expected increase in the number of elderly rehabilitants concerns especially the GKV. There are a number of problems arising from this, concerning financing of rehabilitation and the aspect of growing importance of multimorbidity and geriatric rehabilitation. Furthermore, there is a growing gap between the demographic development of rehabilitation in working age and the demographic component of the budgets for this rehabilitation in the DRV.