Abstract
BackgroundGovernments sometimes face important decisions in the absence of direct evidence. In these cases, expert elicitation methods can be used to quantify uncertainty. We report the results of an expert elicitation study regarding the likely impact on smoking rates in adults and children of plain packaging of tobacco products.MethodsThirty-three tobacco control experts were recruited from the UK (n = 14), Australasia (n = 12) and North America (n = 7). Experts’ estimates were individually elicited via telephone interviews, and then linearly pooled. Elicited estimates consisted of (1) the most likely, (2) the highest possible, and (3) the lowest possible value for the percentage of (a) adult smokers and (b) children trying smoking, two years after the introduction of plain packaging (all other things being constant) in a target country in the expert’s region of residence.ResultsThe median estimate for the impact on adult smoking prevalence was a 1 percentage point decline (99% range 2.25 to 0), and for the percentage of children trying smoking was a 3 percentage point decline (99% range 6.1 to 0), the latter estimated impact being larger than the former (P < 0.001, sign test). There were no differences in either estimate by region (I2: Adults: 0; Children: 0) but there was considerable variability between experts’ estimates within regions (I2: Adults: 0.91; Children: 0.89).ConclusionsIn the absence of direct evidence for the impact of introducing plain packaging on smoking rates in adults and children, this study shows that tobacco control experts felt the most likely outcomes would be a reduction in smoking prevalence in adults, and a greater reduction in the numbers of children trying smoking, although there was substantial variability in the estimated size of these impacts. No experts judged an increase in smoking as a likely outcome.
Highlights
Governments sometimes face important decisions in the absence of direct evidence
We report a study using this method to quantify uncertainty regarding the likely impact on smoking rates of plain packaging of tobacco products
This study aims to elicit estimates of international tobacco control experts on the likely impact of plain packaging of tobacco products on smoking prevalence in adults and the percentage of children trying smoking
Summary
Governments sometimes face important decisions in the absence of direct evidence In these cases, expert elicitation methods can be used to quantify uncertainty. Having overcome a high court challenge, Australia is the first to sell all tobacco products in plain packaging (i.e. without brand imagery or promotional text, and using standardised formatting) [5,6], while the UK government is conducting a public consultation on the possible introduction of such a policy [7] As yet, this measure has only just been implemented by the first country to adopt this policy, so the evidence available to anticipate the impact of such a policy is inevitably indirect. Such evidence includes experimental and observational studies of the impact on attitudes and behaviour of various types of cigarette packaging [8,9,10,11,12]
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