Abstract
This study evaluates the performance of the Advanced Research Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF-ARW) model for prediction of land-falling Bay of Bengal (BoB) tropical cyclones (TCs). Model integration was performed using two-way interactive double nested domains at 27 and 9 km resolutions. The present study comprises two major components. Firstly, the study explores the impact of five different planetary boundary layer (PBL) and six cumulus convection (CC) schemes on seven land-falling BoB TCs. A total of 85 numerical simulations were studied in detail, and the results signify that the model simulated better both the track and intensity by using a combination of Yonsei University (YSU) PBL and the old simplified Arakawa-Schubert CC scheme. Secondly, the study also investigated the model performance based on the best possible combinations of model physics on the real-time forecasts of four BoB cyclones (Phailin, Helen, Lehar, and Madi) that made landfall during 2013 based on another 15 numerical simulations. The predicted mean track error during 2013 was about 71 km, 114 km, 133 km, 148 km, and 130 km respectively from day-1 to day-5. The Root Mean Square Error (RMSE) for Minimum Central Pressure (MCP) was about 6 hPa and the same noticed for Maximum Surface Wind (MSW) was about 4.5 m s−1 noticed during the entire simulation period. In addition the study also reveals that the predicted track errors during 2013 cyclones improved respectively by 43%, 44%, and 52% from day-1 to day-3 as compared to cyclones simulated during the period 2006–2011. The improvements noticed can be attributed due to relatively better quality data that was specified for the initial mean position error (about 48 km) during 2013. Overall the study signifies that the track and intensity forecast for 2013 cyclones using the specified combinations listed in the first part of this study performed relatively better than the other NWP (Numerical Weather Prediction) models, and thereby finds application in real-time forecast.
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