Impact of Past Rainfall Events on the Urban Transport Sector of the Mumbai Metropolitan Region: Current and Future Projections Under BAU Scenario

Abstract

This paper analyses the impact of antecedent rainfall events on the urban transport of the Mumbai Metropolitan Region (MMR), Maharashtra, India. The impacts are analysed in terms of cancelled trips, passenger and vehicle kilometres travelled. We utilized a high flood level map for rainfall events between 2005 and 2007 to prepare a flooded transport network for MMR from 2005 to 2050. This flooded network was modelled in a travel demand model for MMR, restricting the speed and public transport access links based on the flood depth. The results show that maximum cancelled vehicle trips in case of floods would be from private mode (~ 60%) in 2050. The cancelled passenger trips from the metro and suburban rail would be ~ 52% due to both rainfall events. This decrease in the trips would contribute to the reduction in passenger and vehicle activity by an average of ~ 45% and 75% in 2050. The analysis of this study will be beneficial for policymakers to implement various policies and remedial measures towards reducing the effect of such rainfall events in the future.