Impact of nuclear phase-out policy and energy balance in 2029 based on the 8th Basic Plan for long-term electricity supply and demand in South Korea

Abstract

In Korea, the 8th Basic Plan for Long-Term Electricity Supply and Demand (8th BPE) has been announced, with the main points being nuclear phase-out and renewable acceleration due to the earthquake near nuclear sites, and fine dust (PM2.5) issue. Whether stable electricity supply is possible needs to be investigated, considering the minimum reserve capacity. Since South Korea is a four-season country showing different demand for each season, supply and demand estimation is categorized by season and hour. Since solar energy, which takes the greatest share among renewables, shows different electricity generation depending on the irradiance of places and seasons during the hours of a day, 76 locations of South Korea are selected to learn the electricity generation from solar on an hourly basis using System Advisor Model (SAM). Simulation is performed using the calculation result for supply and demand forecast collected from official data. The result indicates that both the 7th and 8th BPEs are not likely to face blackout status, but the 8th BPE can fall below the 22% minimum reserve capacity in summer and in winter. The 8th BPE shows lower greenhouse gas emission than the 7th BPE, but even lower emission can be expected, if the nuclear in 7th BPE is maintained in the 8th BPE.