Impact of Novel Coronavirus Pneumonia on Agricultural Products Prices: A Case Study of Chengdu

Abstract

Ensuring the basic stability of supply and prices of agricultural products bears on people’s wellbeing and contributes to social development and stability. However, the outbreak of COVID-19 and a series of rules and regulations confining socialization adopted to deal with the epidemic have led to the prominent contradiction between supply and demand in the agricultural market, and the sharp fluctuations in the prices of agricultural products. In this paper, the price data of agricultural products in the main urban area of Chengdu in the 10 weeks before and 20 weeks after the Spring Festival from 2018 to 2020 were used to empirically study the impact of COVID-19 on local agricultural product prices by generalized multiple difference method (DID). The empirical results show that, first, compared with the Spring Festival of 2018 and 2019, the COVID-19 epidemic in the Spring Festival of 2020 led to an average increase of 105.02% in the retail prices of agricultural products in Chengdu, among which the increase of livestock and poultry, fruits and vegetables, and aquatic products was the most obvious, while the change of grain and oil prices was not significant. Second, compared with the demand side, the COVID-19 pandemic has a major impact on agricultural prices from the supply side. Third, the impact of COVID-19 on the retail prices of agricultural products is more obvious in areas where the primary industry is relatively small and industrialization is fast. Fourth, in the short term, the government’s policy of suppressing prices does not restrain all agricultural prices. The above research findings provide a reference for understanding the adjustment mechanism of agricultural prices under the impact of the epidemic, and for effectively formulating relevant policies to stabilize the price of agricultural products, ensure supply, and alleviate the pressure on people’s livelihood.