Impact of Nord Stream 2 on Gas Flows in Europe

Abstract

While it is expected that European gas demand declines in long-term, indigenous production in Europe also declines. Thus, European import dependency persists. An important supplier of natural gas is Russia. Currently, the pipeline Nord Stream 2 with an annual capacity of 55 billion cubic meters (bcm) is under construction. To analyse the impact of Nord Stream 2 on European gas flows and on imports of liquefied natural gas (LNG), scenarios are calculated with the worldwide gas market model WEGA. The following exemplary results of 2030 reveal that Nord Stream 2 has significant effects. Transit flows through Germany increase by 12 bcm in comparison to a scenario without Nord Stream 2. On the other hand, gas flows from Poland to Germany are reduced by 17 bcm. Other effects are a redirection of Norwegian gas (12 bcm) from Germany to other Northwest European countries and reduced LNG imports (30 bcm) in Europe.