Year-end Sale % OFF 
Abstract
As of May 4, 2020, India has reported 42,836 confirmed cases and 1,389 deaths from COVID-19. India's multipronged response included nonpharmacological interventions (NPIs) like intensive case-based surveillance, expanding testing capacity, social distancing, health promotion, and progressive travel restrictions leading to a complete halt of international and domestic movements (lockdown). We studied the impact of NPI on transmission dynamics of COVID-19 epidemic in India and estimated the minimum level of herd immunity required to halt it. We plotted time distribution, estimated basic (R0) and time-dependent effective (Rt) reproduction numbers using software R, and calculated doubling time, the growth rate for confirmed cases from January 30 to May 4, 2020. Herd immunity was estimated using the latest Rtvalue. Time distribution showed a propagated epidemic with subexponential growth. Average growth rate, 21% in the beginning, reduced to 6% after an extended lockdown (May 3). Based on early transmission dynamics, R0was 2.38 (95% confidence interval [CI] =1.79-3.07). Early, unmitigated Rt= 2.51 (95% CI = 2.05-3.14) (March 15) reduced to 1.28 (95% CI = 1.22-1.32) and was 1.83 (95% CI = 1.71-1.93) at the end of lockdown Phase 1 (April 14) and 2 (May 3), respectively. Similarly, average early doubling time (4.3 days) (standard deviation [SD] = 1.86) increased to 5.4 days (SD = 1.03) and 10.9 days (SD = 2.19). Estimated minimum 621 million recoveries are required to halt COVID-19 spread if Rtremains below 2. India's early response, especially stringent lockdown, has slowed COVID-19 epidemic. Increased testing, intensive case-based surveillance and containment efforts, modulated movement restrictions while protecting the vulnerable population, and continuous monitoring of transmission dynamics should be a way forward in the absence of effective treatment, vaccine, and undetermined postinfection immunity.
Published Version
Talk to us
Join us for a 30 min session where you can share your feedback and ask us any queries you have
Schedule a callDisclaimer: All third-party content on this website/platform is and will remain the property of their respective owners and is provided on "as is" basis without any warranties, express or implied. Use of third-party content does not indicate any affiliation, sponsorship with or endorsement by them. Any references to third-party content is to identify the corresponding services and shall be considered fair use under The CopyrightLaw.
