Impact of new vehicle market composition on the light-duty vehicle fleet CO2 emissions and cost

Abstract

Internal combustion engine vehicles dominated road transport during the twentieth century. Nevertheless, the panorama is likely to change in the future, with electric-drive vehicle sales increasing due to technology improvement, cost reduction, infrastructure development and increasing environmental awareness. A new vehicle market model and a vehicle stock turnover model were combined to estimate the optimum composition of the 2050 new vehicle market in Japan under different scenarios; and the impact of changes in the new vehicle market composition on the light-duty vehicle fleet. The Base scenario is dominated by internal combustion engine vehicles and hybrid electric vehicles. Fuel cell hybrid electric vehicles dominate when low cost is prioritized; while shift to battery electric vehicles occurs when low CO2 emissions are prioritized. CO2 emissions are reduced 56.9% between 2012 and 2050 in the Base scenario. Diffusion of lightweight mini-sized battery electric vehicles has the largest CO2 emissions reductions, 87.3% compared with the 2050 baseline value; with negative cash flow after 2044.