Impact of new regulatory policies on photovoltaic energy projects in Brazil: a case study for the State of Mato Grosso do Sul

Abstract

This study analyzed the impact of regulatory changes on the implementation of photovoltaic solar energy projects in the State of Mato Grosso do Sul, focusing on the amendments introduced by Law 14.300. The research explored solar generation conditions in various regions, highlighting the influence of geographic location on the productivity of photovoltaic systems. Using fuzzy logic, the attractiveness of solar energy was assessed in different scenarios, relating variables such as productivity, tariffs, and consumption. The results indicate that increases in productivity and tariffs are positively correlated with the attractiveness of solar energy. Additionally, an average increase in the payback period was observed in response to the new regulations. However, specific conditions, such as reduced installation costs, were identified that could mitigate this increase in payback. The study highlighted that adapting to the new regulatory policies could open significant opportunities for distributed generation, particularly in the agricultural sector, contributing to the energy and economic sustainability of the Mato Grosso do Sul region. Fuzzy logic was essential for modeling decision support systems, enabling a precise analysis of the regulatory policies' implications for the economic viability of solar energy projects.