Impact of new power investments up to year 2020 on the energy system of Bosnia and Herzegovina

Abstract

This paper investigates current and planned investments in new power plants in Bosnia and Herzegovina and impact of these investments on the energy sector, CO2 emission and internationally committed targets for electricity from renewable sources up to year 2020. Bosnia and Herzegovina possesses strong renewable energy potential, in particular hydro and biomass. However, the majority of energy production is conducted in outdated power plants and based on fossil fuels, resulting in environment pollution. New major investments The Stanari Thermal plant (300 MW) and the investment in Block 7 (450 MW) at the Thermal Plant Tuzla are again focused on fossil fuels. The power sector is also highly dependent on the hydrology as 54% of current capacities are based on large hydro power. In order to investigate how the energy system of Bosnia and Herzegovina will be affected by these investments and hydrology, the EnergyPLAN model was used. Based on the foreseen demand for year 2020 several power plants construction and hydrology scenarios have been modelled to cover a range of possibilities that may occur. This includes export orientation of Stanari plant, impact of wet, dry and average year, delayed construction of Tuzla Block 7, constrained construction of hydro power plants, and retirement of thermal units. It can be concluded that energy system can be significantly affected by delayed investments but in order to comply with renewables targets Bosnia and Herzegovina will need to explore the power production from other renewable energy sources as well.