Impact of meteorological parameters on suicide mortality rates: A case-crossover analysis in Southern Germany (1990–2006)

Abstract

BackgroundThere is evidence for a seasonal pattern of suicides with peaks in spring and early summer; however, only a limited number of studies has investigated whether daily changes in meteorological variables may trigger suicides. MethodsDaily fatal suicide (N = 10,595) and meteorological data were available for four Bavarian cities and ten counties (Germany) for 1990–2006. City/county-specific immediate, delayed and cumulative effects of air temperature, sunshine duration, and cloud cover on suicides were analyzed using a time-stratified case-crossover approach; city/county-specific effects were then combined using random effects meta-analysis. Potential effect modifiers were specific weather conditions, personal or regional characteristics, and season. ResultsA 5 °C increase in air temperature on the day before a suicide compared to the control days was associated with a 5.7% (95% confidence interval (CI): 0.6; 11.0) higher suicide risk. Further, the suicide risk was 6.5% (95% CI: 0.2; 13.3) higher on days with low/medium cloud cover (0–6 oktas) compared to days with high cloud cover (7–8 oktas). While daily changes in temperature were not associated with suicides in spring, we found a higher suicide risk in summer, autumn, and winter in association with temperature increases. The effects of cloud cover were strongest in summer and autumn and on days with temperature above the median (>8.8 °C). Sunshine duration was not associated with suicides. ConclusionWe found a higher risk for suicides in association with short-term increases in air temperature on the day before the event compared to the control days and on days with low to medium cloud cover. This may highlight times when people are more likely to commit suicide.