Impact of meteorological factors on scarlet fever in Jiangsu province, China.

Abstract

This study aimed to examine the relationships between meteorological factors and the incidence of scarlet fever in different populations for scientific prevention strategies. An ecological study was conducted. The seasonal index was used to detect the seasonal pattern of scarlet fever. A generalized additive model was conducted to estimate the impact of meteorological factors on scarlet fever in different age groups in Jiangsu province. Among the 15,873 cases, the vast majority of cases (91.84%) occurred in the population between 3 and 14 years old, with an average annual incidence rate of 14.51 per 100,000, and 2.81 per 100,000 in the age group ≤2 years old. In the generalized additive model, the risk of scarlet fever increased gradually with the temperature rising in both age groups. Interestingly, with the monthly mean temperature above 20°C, the risk of scarlet fever presented a declining trend in those aged 3-14 years, while it kept stable in the age group ≤2 years. The temperature range only showed a positive effect in the population aged 3-14 years when it was above 9°C. This study revealed the different effects of meteorological factors on scarlet fever in different populations. Surveillance and targeted preventions in the population aged 3-14 years should be enhanced during March-June and November to the following January. Meanwhile, the health education of the guardians was the key to reducing the disease in the age group ≤2 years.