Impact of Meteorological Drought in Upper Blue Nile Basin on the Hydrological Drought of Nile River in Egypt

Eman H Mabrouk, ,Mostafa A Mohamed,National Water Research Center (Nwrc), Cairo, Egypt ,Mohie El Din M Omar,Fawzia I Moursy

doi:10.35940/ijeat.f1213.089620

Abstract

Precipitation over the Upper Blue Nile Basin in Ethiopia contributes with 85% of the Nile river which provides 93% of Egypt’s conventional water resources. This study aims at assessing the meteorological drought in different locations in the Upper Blue Nile Basin and their relationship with the hydrological drought of Nile river in Egypt. The metrological drought was calculated by the Standard Precipitation Index (SPI) at five stations inside and close to the Upper Blue Nile Basin in Ethiopia, whereas the hydrological drought was calculated by the Streamflow Drought Index (SDI) at Dongola station at Nasser lake entrance. Both indices were calculated using the Drought Indices Calculator (DrinC) software. The selected study period was from 1973 to 2017 based on the availability of recorded data for meteorological stations in Ethiopia, and the streamflow for Dongola station. The data was categorized for each station by considering time periods of 1, 3, 6, 9, and 12 months based on their homogeneity. The correlation between SPI and SDI was evaluated using the Pearson correlation coefficient. The results showed a correlation between SPI for the five stations in the Upper Blue Nile Basin and SDI for Dongola station, where Gore station represented the highest frequency of significance at different time scales especially at the 3-months’ scale. The results confirm the relationship between SPI at Gore Station and SDI at Dongola Station, which means that the hydrological drought in Egypt is highly affected by the meteorological drought in the area surrounding Gore station. The paper recommends improving techniques for monitoring and overseeing drought hazards and assessing more meteorological stations to accurately predict climate change variations in Upper Blue Nile Basin and its effect on Egypt’s water resources.

Highlights

Ethiopia has a diverse climate ranging from semi-arid desert type in the lowlands to humid and warm type in the southwest
Precipitation over the Upper Blue Nile Basin in the western part of Ethiopia contributes with 85% of the Nile river
Egypt is as an arid country that depends on the Nile river which provides 93% of the country’s conventional water resources (Omar, Moussa, 2016)

Summary

Introduction

Ethiopia has a diverse climate ranging from semi-arid desert type in the lowlands to humid and warm type in the southwest. Haied et al, (2017) compared the standardized precipitation index (SPI) with the Reconnaissance Drought Index (RDI) in Wadi Djelfa-Hadjia sub-basin, Algeria, and showed a good correlation at different time scales. Muumbi et al, (2017) used SPI and the Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI) to identify meteorological droughts in Upper Kafue River Basin, Southern Africa, where both showed similar results. The results showed that both indices behave in the same manner, but RDI is the proper drought index for Iran since it is a semi-arid region. It is clear that the SPI is the most proper index for assessing the meteorological drought in humid regions. It showed a good correlation with all other drought indices except for the SPEI.

Objectives

Methods

Results