Impact of May atmospheric latent heating over the Southeast Asian low-latitude highlands on interannual variability in the Meiyu onset date

Abstract

The Yangtze-Huai River Basin (YHRB) is an economically developed area and one of the most densely populated regions in China. Based on ERA5 reanalysis and Meiyu monitoring data, this study investigates the relationship between interannual variability in atmospheric latent heating (LH) over the Southeast Asian low-latitude highlands (SEALLH) during early summer and the Meiyu onset date (MOD) in the YHRB. The mean MOD is 9 June, with a quasi-6-year interannual oscillation period. A stronger early summer LH over the SEALLH coincides with earlier MOD; below 500 hPa, LH increases with height and drives an anomalous southwesterly airflow from the Bay of Bengal (BOB) to the SEALLH via β effects. Circulation over the western North Pacific (WNP) is dominated by an anomalous anticyclone, causing the WNP subtropical high (WNPSH) to extend westward and northward. Continuous positive LH anomalies over the SEALLH cause anomalous southwesterly winds to transport moist enthalpy air masses from low latitudes into the YHRB, resulting in abnormal convergence there. Favorable dynamic and thermal conditions drive enhanced precipitation over the YHRB, eventually leading to a MOD that is 13 days earlier than that during periods when early summer LH is relatively weak over the SEALLH. This result potentially supports our capacity to predict the Meiyu in the YHRB.