Abstract
We used a mathematical model to evaluate the impact of mass testing in the control of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2). Under optimistic assumptions, one round of mass testing may reduce daily infections by up to 20–30%. Consequently, very frequent testing would be required to control a quickly growing epidemic if other control measures were to be relaxed. Mass testing is most relevant when epidemic growth remains limited through a combination of interventions.
Highlights
Citation style for this article: Bosetti Paolo, Kiem Cécile Tran, Yazdanpanah Yazdan, Fontanet Arnaud, Lina Bruno, Colizza Vittoria, Cauchemez Simon
We used a mathematical model to evaluate the impact of mass testing in the control of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2)
Using a mathematical model, we assess the possible impact of mass testing campaigns for severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus
Summary
% population tested d: days; SARS-CoV-2: severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2. Expected maximum number of daily SARS-CoV-2 infections as a function of the number of days between consecutive campaigns and the proportion of the population tested in each campaign, for different doubling times, France, 4 January–1. To observe fewer than 40,000 daily infections from 4 January to 1 May with a doubling time of 21 days, testing of 75% of the population needs to be repeated every 21 and 11 days, respectively, when the effectiveness of self-isolation following a positive test is ρ = 90% and 50%. Repeated every 12 and 10 days for a sensitivity Se of the test of 75% and 60%, respectively
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