Impact of Land Use Change on Carbon Storage in Urban Agglomerations in the Guanzhong Plain

Abstract

It is important to study the impact of land use change on terrestrial ecosystem carbon stocks in urban agglomerations for the optimization of land use structure and sustainable development in urban agglomerations. Based on the patch-generating land use simulation (PLUS) model and integrated valuation of ecosystem services and trade-offs (InVEST) model, a simulation was developed that predicted the land use change and carbon stock of the Guanzhong Plain urban agglomeration in 2040 under different scenarios and further analyzed the impact of land use change on carbon stock. The results showed that:① The land use types of the Guanzhong Plain urban agglomeration were mainly cultivated land, forest land, and grassland, which accounted for more than 90 % of the total study area. ② From 2000 to 2020, the carbon stock in the Guanzhong Plain showed a continuous downward trend, with cropland, woodland, and grassland being the main sources of carbon stock in the Guanzhong Plain, and the overall carbon stock declined by 15.12×106 t, with the spatial distribution presenting the distribution characteristics of "high in the north and south and low in the middle." ③ By 2040, the carbon stock would decrease the most under the urban development scenario, with a total reduction of 27.08×106 t, and the least under the ecological development scenario, with a total reduction of 4.14×106t. The research results can provide data support for the high-quality development and rational land use planning of the Guanzhong Plain urban agglomeration.