Impact of Land Cover Changes on Reducing Greenhouse Emissions: Site Selection, Baseline Modeling, and Strategic Environmental Assessment of REDD+ Projects

Abstract

AbstractReducing emissions from deforestation and forest degradation (REDD+) is way key to reduce the emission of greenhouse gases (GHGs) while also protecting vulnerable forest ecosystems. The purpose of this study was to recognize suitable areas for REDD+ Programme projects and calculate the reduction in CO2 emissions through the prevention of forest cover degradation in the Central Hyrcanian forests. For this purpose, the cover changes of the Central Hyrcanian forests were assessed using LANDSAT satellite images. Applying the voluntary carbon standard (VCS) methodology and the calibration period 1984–2014 (30 years), forest cover changes were predicted. The results showed that under the business‐as‐usual scenario, 155,698 ha of Central Hyrcanian forests will be declined by 2044. In general, the REDD+ Programme project implementation will prevent the release of 1,209,231 tCO2e. Based on the social cost of carbon (SCC) approach, the REDD+ Programme project implementation can save 12,092,310 US$. In addition, this approach can be used for the project design document (PDD) of the forest development mechanism.