Abstract
This report provides background research, a computer model on the attached CD-ROM (CRP-CD-93), and a user manual to help airport operators and planners measure the impact of changes in jet fuel price on supply and demand for air service at commercial service airports. The output of the model can ultimately be used to help evaluate the impact of uncertainty on airport development and finance. Applying specific input parameters, the model, embedded in a user-friendly program, allows airport planners and managers to assess how fuel, economic, and other uncertainties may affect their particular airport and to test the sensitivity of varying assumptions about key drivers of airport activity. The supporting research examines historical changes in fuel prices in the context of changing economic conditions and uses this experience to assess risk in adhering to existing air traffic forecasts when planning future airport improvements or expansion. The model illustrates risk using confidence bands that indicate a range of forecasts as a function of changing jet fuel prices and other factors. The research also examines the historic link between changes in jet fuel prices in relation to periodic occurrence of recessions and how changing demand may, in turn, result in changes in fleet composition and size.
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