Abstract
A greenhouse gas emission trading system is considered an important policy measure for the deployment of CCS at large scale. However, more insights are needed whether such a trading system leads to a sufficient high CO 2 price and stable investment environment for CCS deployment. To gain more insights, we combined WorldScan, an applied general equilibrium model for global policy analysis, and MARKAL-NL-UU, a techno-economic energy bottom-up model of the Dutch power generation sector and CO 2 intensive industry. WorldScan results show that in 2020, CO 2 prices may vary between 20 €/tCO 2 in a Grand Coalition scenario, in which all countries accept greenhouse gas targets from 2020, to 47 €/tCO 2 in an Impasse scenario, in which EU-27 continues its one-sided emission trading system without the possibility to use the Clean Development Mechanism. MARKAL-NL-UU model results show that an emission trading system in combination with uncertainty does not advance the application of CCS in an early stage, the rates at which different CO 2 abatement technologies (including CCS) develop are less crucial for introduction of CCS than the CO 2 price development, and the combination of biomass (co-)firing and CCS seems an important option to realise deep CO 2 emission reductions.
Highlights
The research question addressed in this paper is: what could be the impact of different international climate policy frameworks on the implementation of CO2 capture and storage (CCS) in a national energy system such as the energy system of the Netherlands? The Netherlands is chosen, because it is an interesting country for CCS deployment with good CO2 storage possibilities, and relatively short distances between large point sources and potential sinks for CO2 (Broek et al, 2010a)
(acronym for Market Allocation) (MARKAL)-the Netherlands (NL)-UU in order to evaluate the impact of international climate policies on the deployment of CCS on a national level
In this study we combined the applied general equilibrium model WorldScan used for international economic policy analysis with the techno-economic energy model MARKAL-NL-UU in order to evaluate the impact of international climate policies on the deployment of CCS at a national level
Summary
The Fourth Assessment report of the IPCC published in 2007 (IPCC, 2007a) as well as other recent publications like the synthesis report of the scientific congress ‘‘Climate change: Global Risks, Challenges & Decisions’’ (Climate congress, 2009) underpin the necessity to limit the human induced increase of the meanIt is expected that CO2 capture and storage (CCS) will play an important role in realising the necessary emission reductions. Development and implementation of capital-intensive technologies with a long life span such as CCS require a stable long-term investment environment. At present, such a stable investment environment is lacking because of inadequate international cooperation on climate change policy and uncertainty about future emission reduction targets. This can have major consequences for investments in CCS and the planning of CCS deployment activities, and on the CO2 emission reduction potential and costs on a national scale. We will consider the following climate policy features which might affect the implementation of CCS: Insufficient international coordination of climate policy
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