Impact of internal migration on political participation in Turkey

Ali T Akarca,Aysit Tansel

doi:10.1186/s40176-014-0025-4

Abstract

Abstract ᅟ The Impact of population mobility on provincial turnout rates in the 2011 Turkish parliamentary election is studied, controlling for the effects of other socio-economic, demographic, political and institutional factors. Consequences of migration both at destinations and origins are considered. According to the robust regressions estimated, the relationship between turnout and education is inverse U-shaped, and between turnout and age (including generational effects), it is U-shaped. Immigration, emigration, large population, a large number of parliament members elected from a constituency, participation by large number of parties, and existence of a dominant party depress the turnout rate. However, at destinations where large numbers of immigrants from different regions are concentrated, the opportunity afforded to them to elect one of their own reduces the adverse impact of immigration significantly and in some cases even turns it to positive. That emigration, and education beyond certain level, have negative effects on turnout, that immigration’s adverse effect is less in areas with high migrant concentrations, and that in Turkey, political participation is highest among the youngest voters are the novel findings of the study. The latter finding may explain why voter turnout declines in Europe and North America but not in Turkey. JEL Classifications D72; J61

Highlights

During the last sixty years, about 7 to 8 percent of the Turkish population has moved from one province to another in every five-year interval
The main purpose of this study is to investigate the impact of such large population movements on political participation in Turkey
Our results suggest that the turnout rate which declined in the post baby-boomer generations has more than recovered in Turkey among people born after 1980, contrary to what is found for Western countries by the studies mentioned

Summary

Introduction

During the last sixty years, about 7 to 8 percent of the Turkish population has moved from one province to another in every five-year interval. 39 percent of Turkish population resides in a province other than the one in which they were born. This figure was 28 percent in 2000, 17 percent in 1975, and only 12 percent in 19501. Six provinces which collectively make up a third of the country’s resident population have more immigrants than people born there. 16 percent of residents in Istanbul province, which includes Turkey’s largest metropolis, and only 32 percent of those in Ankara province, which includes country’s capital and its second largest city, were born

Objectives

Findings

Conclusion