Impact of including moisture perturbations on short‐range ensemble forecasts

Abstract

We are developing a Short‐Range Ensemble Prediction (SREP) system based on the Eta Model for use over South America. The Eta Model SREP system uses the CPTEC global model Ensemble Prediction System (EPS) forecasts as initial and lateral boundary conditions. The objectives of this work are to verify the impacts of including moisture perturbations in the global EPS on the SREP and to evaluate the forecast quality from the resulting SREP. We compare the SREP constructed with and without moisture perturbations. We chose four cases of South Atlantic Convergence Zone events that produced heavy rainfall for the tests and evaluation. The Eta Model was set with a horizontal resolution of 10 km and integrated for 6 days. The mean errors of the forecasts based on the two perturbation methodologies are similar, which indicates that including moisture did not increase the forecast error. Precipitation forecasts showed major improvement when moisture perturbation was included. The root mean square error (RMSE) of the SREP ensemble mean forecast from both initial condition perturbations is smaller than the RMSE of the control run. The constructed SREP system exhibits forecast RMSE growth rate larger than the ensemble forecast spread, on the other hand, this difference is reduced compared to the driver global model ensemble forecast system.