Impact of including boys in the national school-based human papillomavirus vaccination programme in Singapore: A modelling-based cost-effectiveness analysis.

Abstract

Globally, gender-neutral Human Papillomavirus (HPV) vaccination programmes are gaining traction. Although cervical cancer remains the most prevalent, other HPV-related cancers are increasingly recognised as important, especially among men who have sex with men. We assessed if including adolescent boys in Singapore's school-based HPV vaccination programme is cost-effective from the healthcare perspective. We adapted a World Health Organization-supported model, Papillomavirus Rapid Interface for Modelling and Economics, and modelled the cost and quality-adjusted life years (QALY) associated with vaccinating 13-year-olds with the HPV vaccine. Cancer incidence and mortality rates were obtained from local sources and adjusted based on the expected direct and indirect vaccine protection for various population subgroups at an 80% vaccine coverage. Moving to a gender-neutral vaccination programme with a bivalent or nonavalent vaccine could avert 30 (95% uncertainty interval [UI]: 20-44) and 34 (95% UI: 24-49) HPV-related cancers per birth cohort, respectively. At a 3% discount rate, a gender-neutral vaccination programme is not cost-effective. However, with a 1.5% discount rate, which puts more value on long-term health gains from vaccination, moving to a gender-neutral vaccination programme with the bivalent vaccine is likely cost-effective, with an incremental cost-effectiveness ratio of SGD$19 007 (95% UI: 10 164-30 633) per QALY gained. The findings suggest the need to engage experts to examine, in detail, the cost-effectiveness of gender-neutral vaccination programmes in Singapore. Issues of drug licensing, feasibility, gender equity, global vaccine supplies, and the global trend towards disease elimination/eradication should also be considered. This model provides a simplified method for resource-strapped countries to gain a preliminary estimate of the cost-effectiveness of a gender-neutral HPV vaccination programme before investing resources for further research.