Impact of hypertension on the lifetime risk of coronary heart disease.

Abstract

The lifetime risk estimate conveys the probability of disease in the remaining lifetime for an index age. These estimates may be useful for general audience-targeted knowledge translation activities against hypertension. There are only a few reports on the impact of hypertension on the lifetime risk of cardiovascular events. The Suita Study, a cohort study of urban residents, was established in 1989. We included all participants who were coronary heart disease (CHD) free at baseline. Age (in years) was used as the timescale. Age-specific incidence rates were calculated with the person-year method within 5-year bands. We estimated the sex- and index-age-specific lifetime risk of first-ever CHD, taking the competing risk of death into account. We followed 5834 participants from 1989 to 2007 for a total of 75 387.5 person-years. At age 45 years, the competing risk of death-adjusted lifetime risk for all CHD for men was 14.12% for normotensive men and 26.95% for hypertensive men. The competing risk of death-adjusted lifetime risk for all CHD at 45 years of age for women was 6.21% for normotensive women and 14.85% for hypertensive women. This increased lifetime risk of CHD for hypertensive patients was observed among both men and women across all index ages. Although the overall lifetime risk of CHD was lower than in the Western population, hypertension showed a significant effect on the residual lifetime risk of CHD among Japanese middle-aged men and women. This easy-to-understand knowledge may be used as an important index to assist public health education and planning.