Impact of human mobility on the transmission dynamics of infectious diseases

Abstract

Spatial heterogeneity is an important aspect to be studied in infectious disease models. It takes two forms: one is local, namely diffusion in space, and other is related to travel. With the advancement of transportation system, it is possible for diseases to move from one place to an entirely separate place very quickly. In a developing country like India, the mass movement of large numbers of individuals creates the possibility of spread of common infectious diseases. This has led to the study of infectious disease model to describe the infection during transport. An SIRS-type epidemic model is formulated to illustrate the dynamics of such infectious disease propagation between two cities due to population dispersal. The most important threshold parameter, namely the basic reproduction number, is derived, and the possibility of existence of backward bifurcation is examined, as the existence of backward bifurcation is very unsettling for disease control and it is vital to know from modeling analysis when it can occur. It is shown that dispersal of populations would make the disease control difficult in comparison with nondispersal case. Optimal vaccination and treatment controls are determined. Further to find the best cost-effective strategy, cost-effectiveness analysis is also performed. Though it is not a case study, simulation work suggests that the proposed model can also be used in studying the SARS epidemic in Hong Kong, 2003.