Impact of High-speed rail on air travel demand between Dallas and Houston applying Monte Carlo simulation

Abstract

High-speed rails (HSR) are common in Europe and Asia, but the U.S. still does not have an operational HSR network. Subsequently, literature on HSR in the U.S. socio-spatial context is very limited. To address this gap in the literature, we focus on the Dallas-Houston HSR project, planned to provide service in 2026, to investigate the critical attributes travelers consider when choosing between air and HSR. This study also explores the potential impacts HSR would have on airlines sharing this route. To examine these attributes and the potential effects of this HSR, we performed a stated preference survey, discrete choice analysis, and applied Monte Carlo simulation. Our results show that service frequency is an essential factor for travelers choosing a mode of transportation between Dallas and Houston. A potential competition and cooperation opportunity exist between airlines and HSR on this corridor.