Impact of high body mass index on gallbladder and biliary tract cancer burden in China: a comprehensive analysis of trends from 1990 to 2021.

Abstract

Gallbladder and biliary tract cancer (GBTC) is a significant health burden in China, exacerbated by the rising prevalence of high body mass index (BMI). Understanding the trends and factors contributing to mortality and disability associated with GBTC is crucial for targeted public health interventions. We utilized data from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) Study to assess the burden of GBTC attributable to high BMI in China from 1990 to 2021. Age-standardized rates of deaths, disability-adjusted life years (DALYs), years lived with disability (YLDs), and years of life lost (YLLs) were analyzed. Joinpoint regression and decomposition analyses were conducted to evaluate trends and identify contributing factors, including aging, population growth, and epidemiological changes. Gender-specific differences were also assessed. In 2021, GBTC deaths attributable to high BMI in China reached 4,053, with males experiencing a higher overall burden than females, particularly in older age groups. While females showed a higher mortality and overall burden in the 60 to 79 age range, this trend reversed in older age brackets, with males experiencing steeper increases in mortality and disability-related indicators beyond age 80. The age-standardized DALYs rate mirrored this pattern, with higher rates in males in advanced age groups. From 1990 to 2021, China saw a steady increase in GBTC burden attributable to high BMI, contrasting with a global decline. Joinpoint analysis indicated marked rises in mortality and DALYs rates after 2005, especially in males. Decomposition analysis identified population growth and aging as major drivers of increased deaths, while epidemiological changes primarily contributed to rising DALYs, with a stronger impact observed in males. The burden of GBTC attributable to high BMI in China has increased substantially over the last three decades, driven by population growth, aging, and epidemiological shifts. The trends highlight a growing gender disparity, with males experiencing a greater rise in mortality and disability. Public health strategies targeting obesity and metabolic risk factors are critical to mitigating the increasing GBTC burden.