Impact of heat waves on excess mortality in 2011 and 2012 in Hungary

Abstract

Background/Aims: According to the IPCC the rate of excess mortality due to the increased number of heat waves in relation to climate change can be predicted in the future in Europe. In this study we analyse the heat related excess mortality of the last two years with special care taking into account extreme summer of 2007 in Hungary. Methods: Daily temperature data were gained from the Hungarian Meteorological Service. The daily all cause mortality data at a weekly frequency were provided by the Central Office for Administrative and Electronic Public Services. Excess mortality was calculated for the country, for Budapest and for the seven regions as the difference of the daily mortality on days with mean temperature >25°C and >27°C (2nd and 3rd level of heat alert) and the average mortality on cooler days in the summer periods of 2011 and 2012. Excess mortality was computed also by age groups and sex. Results: In 2011, excess mortality was 5.4% on country level during the 2nd level heat alert, and 17.4% during the 3rd level. The highest excess mortality was 23% in the Central Hungarian Region. 593 excess death cases were registered during the 14 days of heat alerts in 2011. In 2012 the excess mortality was 33% in the Capital during the 3rd level of heat alert (13 days). 1666 excess death cases (27%) could be attributed to the 26 days of the four heat alerts at country level. In both years female mortality during the heat alerts was higher, the difference was bigger during the 3rd level of alerts. The mortality of 0-64 and 65-74 years was very similar, while almost twice as much elderly died during the heat alerts than in the younger age groups. Conclusion: In spite of the heat alert system in Hungary, the intensive heat waves cause great number of excess deaths with a maximum 2012 (1666 cases) during the last 10 years. More effective measures are necessary to decrease heat related excess mortality. The study was supported by the project PHASE - Public Health Adaptation Strategies to extreme weather Events - DG-Sanco 20101103.