Impact of Gulfstream-IV Dropsondes on Tropical Cyclone Prediction in a Regional OSSE System

Abstract

Abstract Aircraft reconnaissance missions remain the primary means of collecting direct measurements of marine atmospheric conditions affecting tropical cyclone formation and evolution. The National Hurricane Center tasks the NOAA G-IV aircraft to sample environmental conditions that may impact the development of a tropical cyclone threatening to make landfall in the United States or its territories. These aircraft data are assimilated into deterministic models and used to produce real-time analyses and forecasts for a given tropical cyclone. Existing targeting techniques aim to optimize the use of reconnaissance observations and partially rely on regions of highest uncertainty in the Global Ensemble Forecast System. Evaluating the potential impact of various trade-offs in the targeting process is valuable for determining the ideal aircraft flight track for a prospective mission. AOML’s Hurricane Research Division has developed a system for performing regional observing system simulation experiments (OSSEs) to assess the potential impact of proposed observing systems on hurricane track and intensity forecasting. This study focuses on improving existing targeting methods by investigating the impact of proposed aircraft observing system designs through various sensitivity studies. G-IV dropsonde retrievals were simulated from a regional nature run, covering the life cycle of a rapidly intensifying Atlantic hurricane. Results from sensitivity studies provide insight into improvements for real-time operational synoptic surveillance targeting for hurricanes and tropical storms, where dropsondes released closer to the vortex–environment interface provide the largest impact on the track forecast. All dropsonde configurations provide a positive 2-day impact on intensity forecasts by improving the environmental conditions known to impact tropical cyclone intensity.