Impact of Gobal Climate Change on the Dynamics of Carbon Balance of Plant Communities in South Asia

Abstract

Assessment of the status of ecosystems experiencing anthropogenic impact is based on the ability of plant communities in such ecosystems to withstand these disturbances or to mitigate their effects fast enough. The aim of this paper is to analyze the impact of global climate change on carbon balance of plant communities of South Asia. To achieve this objective, the spatial model of global carbon cycle developed by the Computing Center of the Russian Academy of Sciences (RAS CC) was used to calculate the impact of industrial CO2 emissions as well as the main causes of carbon losses in the investigated region (deforestation and soil erosion) on the dynamics of carbon accumulation in the humus and phytomass of forest ecosystems. India was selected as a model country to assess and compare the compensatory functions of plant communities. On the basis of the spatial mathematical model of the global carbon cycle in the biosphere, changes in CO emissions as a result of burning fossil fuels, deforestation, and soil erosion associated with improper land use in South Asia were estimated. The impact of deforestation and soil erosion on climate change in South Asia is forecast up to the year 2060. A comparison of regulatory functions of different types of plant communities was performed for the study area. The calculations data revealed some regularities occurring in the ecosystems of South Asia under the impact of CO2 emissions, deforestation, and soil erosion due to improper land use. Mathematical modelling has shown the dependence of growth of humus and phytomass of vegetation on the amount of CO2 in the atmosphere. Quantitative forecast of the dynamics of the ecosystem characteristics of plant communities depending on the growing region has been performed.