Impact of global warming on wind power potential over East Asia

Abstract

Wind power, which is the fastest–growing renewable energy source, is directly influenced by weather or climate conditions. This study examined the recent changes and future projections under different carbon emission levels in the wind power potential (Wpot) over East Asia using the ERA5 datasets and high–resolution multiple regional climate models (RCMs). Because wind conditions are constantly changing, we employed the wind velocity range–based approach for estimating the Wpot using the shortest time interval data available, which is the three–hourly wind velocity. Seasonal Wpot climatology of area–averaged Wpot over East Asia was the highest in spring. The average Wpot showed the highest values in northern China and southern Mongolia throughout all seasons, while recent changes in the Wpot over East Asia were characterized by overall increases in spring, autumn, and winter, but a decrease in summer. However, there were large regional variabilities. Northern China and southern Mongolia are expected to remain significant regions with high Wpot in the future. This is due to the large contribution of the frequency of optimal wind conditions, ranging from 12 m s−1 to 25 m s−1, to the Wpot in these regions, both currently and in the future. The average future Wpot in East Asia is expected to show no significant changes in both the low and the highest carbon emission scenarios compared to the present. However, it is projected that regional disparities in the Wpot will increase in a scenario with enhanced emission by the end of the 21st century.